Opponents Build Firm Front against Erdogan’s Monocracy as Vote Nears

A year ago, Erdogan proposed amendment of the national constitution to scrap the post of the prime minister and transfer its powers to the president post. The government held the referendum on April 16, 2017, and the proposal narrowly won the public agreement by a two-percent margin despite the government’s massive encouragement of the citizens to vote for it. After the referendum, they announced that removal of the prime minister post will not be done before the end of Erdogan’s presidency, scheduled for early 2019. But why did Erdogan announce early vote and how likely will he win another term?

A key drive behind the snap elections is to complete what remained of last year’s constitutional amendment process. Once the elections are held, the power scale will lean towards the president post, while the PM post is scrapped– a redesigning of the constitutional mechanism that will allow Erdogan control the home and foreign policy with an open hand.

Under the new political system, the parliament has no right to question the ministers. This will mean that Erdogan has successfully eliminated one of the main obstacles standing ahead of his domestic and foreign plans. Currently, some opposition parties use the questioning leverage to set up roadblocks in front of Erdogan’s policies.

On the other side, traditionally one of the leading opponents of the Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) is a bloc of groups with links to the secular military generals and the whole Turkish army. Despite a concentrated purge of the opponents in the army after the 2016 military coup, Erdogan remains concerned about some ongoing conspiracies. Under the new constitution and election law, the figures with links to the army or coming from the military body will not be allowed to run for president. This is comforting for the president because it is the first time in the history of the state that the military people are in lowest political power.

The snap elections are coming while Turkish economy is experiencing lower growth rate after long years of doing well. The economy saw a 7.3 percent growth rate in the last three months of last fiscal year, but now it is 7 percent. The economists suggest that Erdogan by early vote seeks long-term political stability which helps popular psychological comfort and consequent return to economic ascendance.

Also, the regional developments, especially those in neighboring Syria, should not be disregard as effective factors. Since January 22, Turkey waged a war against Kurdish units based in Afrin in Syria’s north. Ever since, the president has been under fire by political opponents who want forces back home. But Erdogan is too resolved to listen to them, announcing that he will continue the campaign to secure Idlib, Tell Rifaat and Manbij in northern Syria. It is not an easy job for him to resist the home opposition, but he hopes that the elections will considerably cut the opposite sides’ power to oppose.

Political makeup ahead of vote

With the country being less than two months from the elections, the political scene is picking new and relatively strong coalitions in the face of Erdogan.

Last week, for example, four powerful opposition parties– Republican People’s Party (CHP), iYi (Good) Party, Saadet Party, and the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party– said they will form a coalition against Erdogan’s AKP. With each having a considerable vote base in the society, they can pose a serious challenge to Erdogan’s chance of winning.

CHP is a biggest secular party and is the key government opponent. It presently holds 132 of the total 550 seats.

iYi Party, formed in October 2017, is a leftist party, adopting an agenda antipathetic to Erdoganism of the ruling party and the change from parliamentary to the presidential system. Having in mind that the constitutional reforms won only a narrow authorization to pass in the last year’s plebiscite and 49 percent voted against the constitutional changes, the Good Party counts on gaining votes of the seculars and nationalists on the one hand and the no-to-constitutional-changes voters on the other hand.

Saadet Party, theoretically a branch of Welfare Party, is another party to race for seats. Though Islamist and seeing itself a follower of the former Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, the party, however, has not allied with the Islamist AKP for the upcoming polls.

The Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, whose leader Selahattin Demirtas is in prison for nearly two years, will unquestionably have the vote of the Kurdish part of the Turkish society. Now it becomes clearer how a unity of the nationalists, Islamists, leftists, and the Kurds can be risky to the Erdogan’s win.

In the simplest view, entry of each of these parties to the quartet coalition in the first phase of the election will divide the cohesive vote body of the AKP. If Erdogan fails to secure over 50 percent of the votes, there will be a run-off.

The next big challenge for him will be the continuation of the four-party alliance. If the alliance decides to nominate a single presidential candidate, then Erdogan will find it arduous to win.

The CHP has named Muharrem Ince, a staunchly secular and a fiery critic of Erdogan, as a rival to the president, saying that he is a cross-party candidate. During his latest speech, he removed the CHP lapel pin and instead wore a Turkish flag on his shoulders in an effort to echo his party’s cross-party mindset.

All of these developments mean that a serious rival to Erdogan is emerging. If the coalition’s determination for naming a single challenger to Erdogan endures, Erdogan’s loss will become a very likely matter.

Now the lawyers and journalists associations, as well as some commercial chambers, have voiced backing for the secular bloc. Despite the fact that the government holds the key instrument of media under its control to influence the public, the opposite camp looks very resolved and weighty.