The possibilities of a confrontation between Syria and Israel

The leaders of the Israeli military establishment are convinced that Syria is capable of surprising them and confronting alone in the face of Israel without anyone’s help. This conclusion came as a result of the Syrian growing power in the fields of the advanced weapons and the defensive and combat systems, as well as of the steadfastness of the regime for ten months in the face of the protests taking place in the country. According to the Israeli point of view, the coming year (2012) is consequently going to be a year of a critical juncture in the region.

Israeli media sources confirmed that Tel Aviv is following with great interest the events in Syria, and is taking into account all the possibilities, including the fact that the Syrian regime might start a war with Israel. Hence, this is what made the commander of the Israeli Air Force, Ido Nhouctn, confirm recently that the Israeli army is following-up the Syrian affair, saying that the “northern front is unstable, and everything happening daily in Syria leads us to follow up Syria on a daily basis”.

The statement made by the commander of the Israeli Air Force came in the wake of the wide military training carried out by the Syrian army, in which all the forces of the Syrian army, “marine, air, and land”, took part. They were all trained to launch medium-range missiles in Syria, and this necessitated more concern over the possibility of starting a war against Israel by the Syrian army.

Israeli media sources published some details about the Syrian army and the nature of its armament, but Israel still fear the presence of chemical weapons, which are as estimated by some military research centers found in large quantities. In fact, the same centers also estimate that quantities of the Syrian arms have been sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and this is dangerous as well in case a war broke out, for it may cause serious damage in Israel.

Amos Harel in the Haaretz Newspaper believed that the report prepared by the Israeli military intelligence on the assessment of the ability of Syria after the events taking place over ten months refers to the inability of all the efforts made in order to weaken the Syrian internal front especially in Damascus and Aleppo, the two largest cities in terms of population. He also added that if Syria returned to its normal status, this might increase its moral and internal powers, what might threaten in turn Israel in 2012, the coming year.

Therefore Israel considers that what is happening in Syria i.e. the protests contribute to exhausting the Syrian military force and form a strategic weakness in its balance of power, and this is a gold opportunity to launch a decisive war on it. However, those who believe in this point of view consider that any confrontation with Syria would result with no doubt in an intensive support by Hezbollah and its rockets against Israel, and perhaps large numbers of its troops might penetrate the borders of Israel with their short-term missiles and be located between the cities and villages of northern Israel. Thus, if Hezbollah engaged in the battle, this according to the Israeli accounts means that Iran will participate in the assumed confrontation, for the Iranian leadership realizes that Iran is the central goal of any war won by the West and Israel over Syria.

Many estimates indicate that the goal of the United States from escalating its rhetoric towards Iran is to warn it not to support Syria or Hezbollah in case they were exposed to a comprehensive confrontation by Israel. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, announced that “Washington is concerned about the fact that it might be pushed to engage in a war against Iran and that it is cooperating with Israel in all the issues relating to Iran. It also warned Tehran not to make mistakes in its accounts regarding what it might carry out because any inaccuracy in its calculations might drag all the parties into an armed conflict with it. Hence, the Middle East and the whole world will be facing a catastrophic outcome”.

American analysts note that this tone is unprecedented in terms of the way of dealing with Iran and they believe that this is probably a message that indicates that the United States will not stand still if a military confrontation took place between Israel and Syria or between Israel and Iran. Therefore, the axis of resistance and reluctance should recognize that Washington would not accept the growing of its military abilities and influence following the withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Iraq. It is noteworthy that Washington’s escalating tone aims at deterring Syria and Iran from exploiting the American apparent weakness after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq or at preparing for a war on one of the two countries to prevent one of them from protecting one another.

Under the heading of a possible war on Syria and the growing Iranian nuclear threat, a political analyst, Yaakov Katz, revealed in the Israeli Jerusalem Post newspaper that the estimates prepared by the Israeli political leadership Chiefs of Staff suggest that there are serious challenges faced by Israel in 2012 because of the increasing number and quality of Hezbollah’s rockets and its military machine and because of the growing Syrian and Iranian support for the Palestinian organizations against Israel. Katz adds that in 2012 Israel will witness an intensive Iranian hunt for making a nuclear bomb and will witness as well on the Syrian front an increase in the import of modern weapons, (air, sea and land related ones), from Russia to protect Syria so that to be prepared for all possibilities.