Jordan in 2011: The exacerbating crisis will lead to popular explosions

Many Jordanian observers, experts and foreign diplomats who follow-up the Jordanian affair believe that the next year will witness a number of unprecedented tensions and quivering situations, which may affect the advanced positions in the constructions of the State, something that is not much different from what is happening in the rest of the region which is facing dramatic variables and rapid uprisings.

According to those observers, the economic, political, and administrative crisis could face further escalation and complexity, and might reach to critical areas and flammable cases. All the signs indicate that the financial and economic situations tend toward causing many calamities and busts, especially after the ruling circles were surprised with the slim size of the financial assistance agreed upon by the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) during their late summit in Jordan. The financial assist is about two and a half billion dollars over five years, and 500 million dollars each year.

The government found that this modest amount is a Gulf throwback of what the states of the Council were committed to do regarding Jordan earlier. They have promised to give one billion dollars annually, and this prompted Al-Khasawneh government to monitor this amount in the draft state budget for next year to fill an important aspect of the deficit therein, but the Gulf winds blow counter to what the ships of the government desire.

It was known that the higher authorities of Jordan will make in the near future a series of contacts with the GCC to raise the volume of aid to one billion dollars. In case they could not respond to this demand, they will go to Saudi Arabia in particular to compensate for this deficiency, and to raise the required amount, which constitutes an urgent need to maintain the safety of the general budget in its minimum rate.

Local and foreign observers confirm that the government will not get comfort and reassurance, even if it obtained the full amount of one billion dollars, because this amount will not be enough to end the razing financial crisis. Thus, the government will eventually be obliged to practice the gradual increase of the support provided for a number of important goods and services. This means raising the prices of fuel, water, electricity, and many other things. Additionally, this will bother the working and middle classes, and push them to double their movement and to escalate it in the popular street throughout the city, the village, and the desert, without any uncertainty or hesitation, alike the popular uprisings that are now filling most of the Arab arenas.

Observers estimate that the repercussions of the political crisis will not be less next year than the implications of the financial and economic crisis. It is expected that the gap of the disagreement would expand regarding the political affairs between the government and the parliament on the one hand, and between the Islamic movement and the forces of popular opposition on the other hand. It is also expected that the street would be a field of hot confrontations between the two sides.

Observers explain this situation by saying that the government and parliament are wasting time and are listless concerning the process of political reform in general, and the holding of parliamentary elections yet to come, in particular. However, the national opposition forces and the Islamic movement are rushing to hold such elections, according to a new modern and demographic electoral law that could provide them a chance to win the number of parliamentary seats they deserve through free and fair elections that would lack the sins of erosion and forgery.

The government claims that it is about to subject the laws governing the process of political reform to further research and dialogue, before submitting them to the House of Representatives during the first months of the next year, most notably the laws of the parliamentary elections, the supreme body supervising the elections, the Constitutional Court, and the political parties. It is likely- even inevitably- that the Parliament is intentionally prolonging the discussion of these laws in order to procrastinate and to gain time, especially that its regular session will end in late next April, and it will be followed by a parliamentarian vacation for more than two months. This means that the parliamentary elections will not take place during the next year, but will be deferred to the year 2013, contrary to what the Islamic movement and the opposition parties adopt and call for, as well as the other forces and popular bodies that are ready to go to the street at any time.

Although the slogan of fighting corruption, raised by the Government of Al-Khasawneh and began to practice it in effect, is supported and backed by the vast majority of the people, but the observers do not hide their concerns over the nets of the centers of power, and that of corruption and reverse push, which are still having a lot of power and influence within the corridors of power and outside them. This comes especially since the institution of corruption that is widely spread in across the country for several years possess many of the officers and cronies who are willing to mix the cards, to incite sectarian and tribal strives, to expand the circle of accusations to include the highest levels, and to stamp the government with the marks of reckless and working to sabotage the country.

Observers highlighted the rumors that have been spread recently about the concerns of the investors, their shaking confidence in the economy of Jordan, and that most of them would soon leave the country. Hence, the rumors add that the volume of domestic and foreign investment was reduced, and the value of the dinar was weakened. However, those rumors are false and untrue, because the central bank is still insisting on installing the rate of the dinar, under all circumstances, although his current governor, Mohammed Saeed Shaheen, is said to be replaced during the next few months.

Observers say that one of the influential embassies in Amman, which had encouraged to fight corruption, and welcomed the measures taken by the Government of Al-Khasawneh initially, has then expressed reservation about these procedures, and also advised to limit them, so as not to make the regime appear as if it is trying itself and condemning its supporters and staff.

As for the administrative and strategic levels, observers say that the general compass has overshadowed to a large extent, both at the domestic and/or regional levels. Confusion and uncertainty became evident in the political decision on more than one level, and as far as the local criticism over the official performance mounted to its highest levels, several foreign press articles have increased also in this regard. This comes in addition to diplomatic reports by foreign ambassadors in Amman, all of them warn of serious risks awaiting Jordan in the present and the future, which it is doomed to explode in the next year in general.

Those observers pointed out that the ruling circles are strongly disturbed because of these newspaper articles and diplomatic reports that question the decision-making of Jordan, and the performance of the public institutions. They emphasized (the observers) that a royal visit to Washington on next January the 17th, will be addressing in part with the U.S. President these writings and reports that are designed to tarnish the image of Jordan, and to mislead the world public opinion about its current reality and firm future.

In light of the weakness of the state institutions and their low prestige, the observers did not rule out the possibility of having a civil conflict between the components of the Jordanian community, particularly between the Islamic movement that enjoy wide popularity, and the influential tribal institution that have historical presence, due to the conflict of interests and orientations between these two poles. They noted that the events of the city of Mafraq that took place last Friday are an indicator of what the difference between these two poles could reach to in the coming days, including burning the headquarters of the Islamic movement at the hands of some of the sons of Bani Hassan tribe, and the movement vowing as a result to probably protect itself using its own power!