China will never allow US to employ Libya model for North Korea

Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, Bolton said the White House has “very much in mind the Libya model from 2003, 2004,” a process that saw former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi make a full disclosure about his country’s weapons programs. Qaddafi agreed to abandon his nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. However, he was overthrown years later and killed by US-backed rebels.
 
Foreign policy experts studying North Korea say Pyongyang often cites Qaddafi’s fate as the reason why nuclear weapons are the only deterrent against US aggression.
 
“As regards the experience of Libya and its denuclearization, it is a totally different situation than what now prevails in Korea. Libya is half a world away and had no defense treaty with China as does the DPRK,” Etler said in an interview on Monday.
 
“Nonetheless, China deployed its navy to evacuate tens of thousands of Chinese nationals living and working there (Libya) after the US and NATO decided to overthrow Qaddafi. No such scenario could possibly play itself out in Korea. China would never stand for it,” he added. “That is an incontrovertible fact that Bolton must be well aware of, unless he is a total fool.”
 
Etler said the US is in no position to dictate the terms of negotiations as it enters the talks with North and South Korea. “The idea that the US is calling the shots turns reality on its head.”
 
“In fact, the DPRK led by Kim John-un has painted Trump into a corner. The abrupt turnaround by Kim with the DPRK’s participation in a united Korean team during the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, and Kim’s subsequent overtures to Washington and Seoul took everyone by surprise. As the rapprochement between the two Koreas has increased in momentum, the US has had to react to their new, emerging relationship,” he noted.
 
The analyst said the US is being forced to respond to the developments unfolding on the Korean Peninsula and is no longer in charge. “Basically Kim and the DPRK have seized the initiative forcing Trump and his team to respond defensively. In other words, Kim has the ball and is running with it.”
 
“In order to understand what is happening in Korea it is imperative to understand Kim’s and the DPRK leadership’s motivations. Their primary objective is to ensure the survival and viability of their country in the face of US threats to subvert it. The US has made no secret that it would like to see the stalemate on the Korean Peninsula continue indefinitely,” Etler noted.
 
    The United States, the analyst said, “has supported previous South Korean governments that have stymied any and all attempts to seek a resolution to the Korean conflict. This allows the US to maintain a foothold in East Asia in its efforts to maintain regional hegemony and confront and contain its arch rival China.”
 
“The US refusal to sign a peace treaty with the DPRK and normalize relations is a direct consequence of its imperialist and interventionist foreign policy that it practices worldwide, creating hot spots and tensions wherever it seeks to assert its influence.”
 
“The DPRK’s nuclear policy and missile program was not meant to threaten the South, Japan or the US. Its sole purpose was to force the issue and get the world’s attention in order to finally resolve the 70-year old-Korean conflict. In so doing, it has succeeded beyond all expectations,” he said.
 
Professor Etler said North Korea is now ready to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs for “ironclad guarantees of its sovereignty and independence.”
 
“The ball is now in the US court and it is on the defensive. The prospect for a peace accord between North and South Korea with China as its guarantor has never been better.”
 
“The US is faced with a dilemma; either accept the new reality and allow the peace process to continue or do all that it can to thwart and sabotage it. If it does the former, Trump can take all the credit he wants and even put a Nobel Peace Prize on his mantle. If it does the latter, the US will be seen by one and all as a wrecker and saboteur pushing the world once again to the brink of war,” Etler concluded.