The Congress’s vote on the attack: How many are approving and how many are opposing?

The U.S. President Barack Obama has to win a majority in both houses so as to get a “legitimate” cover for the planned military operation against the Syrian regime. Thus, what are the results until today, how many voices the draft resolution to strike militarily the Syrian regime needs? 

According to the latest reports from Washington, the support for the strike is the largest among the members of the Senate more than that of the House of Representatives. 25 members of the Senate declared explicitly that they support the strike, while 17 others opposed it firmly. 56 members are still perplexed so far, while two members are completely staying away from the media. Of course, the U.S. president needs the support of 51 votes out of 100 to pass a strike in the Senate. 

As for the House of Representatives, the overwhelming majority so far is opposing an attack on Syria widely. For this purpose, the U.S. administration is carrying out since more than a week a large media campaign within the corridors of the Congress in order to win the sympathy of the legislators and through the American media in order to gain public support.
 
In this context, the draft won preliminary support for the strike for a total of only 49 members in exchange for 199 opposing deputies! 187 deputies announced that they did not deduct their final decision yet, or are unavailable, and did not make any media statement to know their initial orientation. It is known that Obama needs the support of 218 deputies, at least, to pass a strike in the House of Representatives (1). On the other hand, if the number of opponents reached to 218 deputies, the project falls naturally in the voting process. 

Because the result of the vote on the proposed military strike is not settled yet, about 12 senior assistants to the president and officials working in the “White House” are carrying out daily campaigns to promote for the strike, through meetings with every member of the Congress individually or in group, and in conjunction the U.S. administration is publishing poignant scenes of the bodies of victims of the “Syrian Al-Gouta” attacks. 

Obama is going to address both the Congress and the American people on Tuesday night via a speech as scheduled, in which he will be explaining the rationale for a strike, and he would be also requesting the physical and moral support. He will also conduct a series of interviews with major U.S. media. 

Until now, the popular support is not available. Only about 24% of the American public support the draft of the attack, versus 71% do oppose it, and 5% are still undecided, according to the latest opinion polls. 

Hence, in order to gain the confidence of the undecided members of the Congress, the U.S. president has to answer a set of questions that has been fired in recent media statements, most notably: 

1-    What would a military strike achieve at the field level? (A lot of the members of the Congress believe that there is no place for the U.S. Army in the conflict between the Syria - Iran - Hezbollah axis on the one hand and the Syrian opposition-Al Qaeda axis on the other hand!) 

2-    How much will strike cost financially and in terms of lives? (A lot of the members of the Congress consider that the Obama administration is concealing the reality regarding the high material costs of the anticipated attack, is hiding the casualties expected in Syria as well, as it is hiding the possibility of getting involved in a field conflict later where the subsequent developments may drop the slogan “No boots on the ground” raised by Obama). 

3-    What will happen after the end of the strike? (A lot of the members of the Congress believe that two or three days of the missile bombardment from the sea, and even from the air but from outside the Syrian airspace, will not be enough to bring about real change on the ground, what could jeopardize the U.S. interests in the Middle East). 

4-    What will the United States do if Syria or its ally forces responded? (A lot of the members of the Congress consider that it is illogical to cause an outbreak of confrontation in the Middle East, then to stop the military operations by the United States, while the Israeli entity, or other ally countries are still being bombed, for example). 

Therefore, it is certain that the way to win the support of the members of the U.S. Congress to the draft of the U.S. strike on Syria is not easy at all, alike gaining the support of the American public. So far, there is no majority favoring the strike. But things could change within hours and not days, as a result of the intense media and political campaigns that are anticipated as of Monday morning. Moreover, a number of American experts consider that Obama may eventually resort to act without a congressional cover in the event that he failed to win the support of the representatives of the American people. The American history has examples in this sense, including for instance, the decision of the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan to invade Grenada Islands in 1983 without informing the Congress of the attack but only after initiating it! 

(1)    It is noteworthy that during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, 296 members of the U.S. House of Representatives gave the green light to move (only 75 deputies are still within the current house), while 133 other deputies opposed at that time . In the Senate, 77 senators approved the attack, while 23 others opposed it”.