Ukraine: Act II

But Russia is far from down and out. It has deep political, economic, social, cultural and military ties with the former Soviet republic. Russia is the only country that put a US$15 billion aid plan on the table when Ukraine was on the brink of bankruptcy.
 
Now, act II is unfolding.
 
Russia is questioning the legitimacy of the new government. It came to power by means of a classical coup, not through democratic elections. Under the constitution, the president may resign or be impeached, but only after the case is reviewed by the Constitutional Court and then voted in by a three-quarter majority of the Parliament.
 
There was an extraordinary session of Parliament, which was held after most members were told there would be no session and many had left. And then, under the chairmanship of the radical party Svoboda, this rump parliament declared that the president had resigned.
 
Yanukovych has declared he is still the legitimate president. He was elected by winning 48.95 percent of the ballot to Tymosheko's 45 percent in a democratic election, called free and fair by international observers. So Western officials and media have launched a campaign to minimize the role of Svoboda and demonize the less than perfect Yanukovych, an antediluvian tactic.
 
But the neo-Nazi Svoboda and Right Sector, though in the minority, were instrumental in accomplishing the coup. They paved the way for the center-right to take over. And the latter immediately moved to further right. They introduced a resolution to outlaw the Communist Party, which is effectively the only remaining opposition party in Parliament. The consolidation of the power of the speaker of the Parliament and the acting president in a single individual, Olexander Turchynnov, gave him greater power than is allowed under the Ukrainian constitution, and he promptly called for the arrest of Yanukovych.
 
Now the Parliament rules without any representation from the majority party, since most of the deputies from the east and south of the country are afraid to set foot in Parliament. And all across the country, headquarters of parties are being sacked by their opponents. There are serious doubts whether the elections scheduled for May 25 will be fair and free.
 
As the new "government grapples with imminent economic collapse and separatism," the United States and Britain are trying to ease tensions over Ukraine, claiming it should not be a battleground between the East and West. British Foreign Secretary William Hague declared "We want to send our strong support for the territorial integrity and unity of Ukraine." What they really want is to consolidate what they have gained. The United States and the EU want the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine avoid economic collapse, and try to set up a donors' conference for European countries to raise funding for Ukraine.
 
Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev said interim authorities in Kiev had conducted an "armed mutiny." The Russian Foreign Ministry accused interim leaders of passing laws aimed at infringing the humanitarian rights of Russians and other ethnic groups. Russia has recalled its ambassador to Ukraine for consultation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the EU and United States not to try to shape Ukraine's future.
 
With deep ties to Ukraine, Russia can afford to wait and see what will happen next. According to the BBC, Professor Andrei Zagorski, a political analyst at Moscow's Institute of World Economy and International relations, is examining the Kremlin's policy options in the current crisis. Moscow's primary focus could be to support the emergence of new political leaders with nationwide appeal who could replace Yanukovych's demoralized Party of Regions, particularly in eastern Ukraine. They could then challenge the interim authorities.
 
In a report by the Guardian, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an immediate test of combat readiness of troops in central and eastern Russia in a move that will dramatically elevate fears of a separatist threat in Ukraine.
 
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that has nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.
 
Let us watch what happens in Act III.