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Thursday 25 August 2011 - 08:42

The post-Gaddafi Libya

By Mike Jennings
Story Code : 94383
The post-Gaddafi Libya
The revolutionaries have captured two of the colonel's sons Saadi and Mohammad. It was also reported that his potential successor Seif al-Islam was captured but later the revolutionaries said that Seif was never in custody and that Muhammad had also escaped.

Though the location of Gaddafi himself remains unknown, it is understood that his era has come to an end. The Libyan ruler now left with two options: either flee the country or as Libya's former Prime Minister Abdessalam Jalloud -- who has defected to the fighters' side - puts it “probably be killed.”

The National Transitional Council (NTC), which has been recognized as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people by much of the international community -- including Russia and China which initially refused to recognize the revolutionaries -- has already announced that it will hold elections, heeding the people's demands. However, as long as there is no stability and peace in the country, free and fair elections cannot be held. Therefore, for now Libya's future remains in uncertainty.

Expecting stability in Libya is not unrealistic.

With an area of 1,759,540 square kilometer (679,360 square mile) -- slightly larger than the State of Alaska -- Libya has a population of only 6.4 million, which the National Transitional Council can use to its advantage.

Moreover, tribalism and tribal conflicts has been diminishing in the face of a common enemy contrary to reports by Western media outlets, which have been attempting to depict the Libyan population as a group of uncivilized tribes that would engage in battles with one another in the absence of a powerful central government.

This is while in reality, different tribes have been fighting together over the past six months and over this period they have set aside their differences, fought on the same front and gotten to know each other better and prepared the ground for a post-Gaddafi Libya.

Another factor that points to the feasibility of democracy in Libya is Gaddafi's relatively small and yet shrinking fan base. Contrary to claims by state television the colonel only has a few loyal supporters -- most of whom are either related to him or on his payroll.

Even his own tribe -- the Gaddafi tribe -- has on occasions expressed discontent with the long-time ruler and his autocratic and tyrannical approach to politics.

Prime Minister Jalloud was just one example of how Gaddafi is losing those close to him one by one. Jalloud, a close friend and ally of the Colonel for 40 years, defected to the revolutionary forces last week.

The Colonel never had a large, well-organized and well-equipped army. A military consisted of mostly mercenaries from Burkina Faso, Chad, and Liberia makes up the Libyan ruler's armed forces.

The mercenaries have no ties to or sympathy for Gaddafi; therefore, they would have no motivation to confront the Libyan people once the pay checks stop coming in.

NATO has, meanwhile, assumed a more active role in the Libyan conflict. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was on occasion accused of attempting to maintain a balance between the warring sides in oil rich Libya after a large number of its airstrikes targeted civilians and revolutionary positions.

However, with the fighters making inroads into the capital, the Western military alliance is launching more accurate aerial attacks, hitting targets such as Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziyah compound in Tripoli.

One day after NATO attacked the compound the fighters said they had surrounded the building and were in control of the western entrance of the facility.

The increase in NATO activity stems from the likelihood of Gaddafi's imminent fall and the subsequent takeover of the oil and gas resources by the fighters.

Moreover, the fall of the colonel could mean the confiscation of his assets in Western countries -- assets which belong to the Libyan people and could be frozen by Western governments.

In other words, the Western military alliance is capitalizing on the momentum in order to make political and economic gains.

The Libyan people, amidst the wave of Islamic Awakening sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa, stood up to Gaddafi, fought for months, sacrificed their lives for their cause and displayed unique resilience while being bombarded by both Gaddafi and NATO forces.

Now that the efforts of Libyan fighters are bearing fruit Western politicians like US President Barack Obama are claiming stakes in the victory.

"NATO has once again proven it is the most capable alliance in the world and its strength comes from both its firepower and the strength of our democratic ideals," Obama said on Monday, shortly after the revolutionaries captured parts of the Libyan capital.

British Defense Secretary Liam Fox said, “NATO will continue with its overwatch, and while we have stopped bombing operations at the present time, we would be able to respond to any threat to the civilian population or to NATO forces themselves.”

The European Union said it would “keep supporting the country in its democratic transition and economic reconstruction, based on social justice, inclusiveness and territorial integrity.”

The comments clearly overstate the role that NATO and the West have played in Libya, attempting to create false consciousness among the Libyan people that they would not have been able to succeed, had it not been for the west.

Through such a tactic the West seeks to gain the sympathy of the Libyans by making them feel indebted to NATO.

However, should the National Transitional Council live up to its promise and hold free and fair elections it will be up to the Libyan people to decide the future of their country and ensure that Western forces will not station troops on their soil to avoid a fate like that of Iraq and Afghanistan where US-led forces have stayed for eight and ten years respectively and still striving to secure yet longer a stay.
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