How Will Trump Lead the Game in Afghanistan’s Chaotic Conditions?

With releasing the results of the US presidential election and announcement of win of Trump over his Democratic rival Hilary Clinton, the world went into a real shock. Because a majority of the American elites– from both Republican and Democratic parties– were willing to see Hillary Clinton taking the office of president. While an array of revelations by the Democratic Party against Trump left the Republican candidate’s image badly tarnished, at the end of the road he, to everybody’s shock and unbelief in his win, became the president of the US.
 
This result of presidential race has unleashed a seriously huge amount of media speculations inside the country and outside it about his stance and approach especially in his upcoming foreign policy.
 
Meanwhile, some analysts suggest that the Republican win of the US presidential election will trouble the American plans in a set of fields. On the foreign policy stage, for example, heightened rifts between the Republicans and the Democrats, particularly on Afghanistan, will put new troubles ahead of the new White House administration. This issue will catch further attention when we consider the Republicans who won the majority in the House of Representatives.
 
Accordingly, two points need to be taken into consideration: first is the Republicans' general approach to the foreign issues and particularly the way they are supposed to deal with Afghanistan case. Having in mind that the Republicans never conceded to a timetable for withdrawal of the US military forces from Afghanistan, it is easy and natural to predict that they will expect Donald Trump to not only act just against Obama’s policy for pulling the American forces out of the Central Asian country but also set high on agenda expanding Washington’s military presence in Afghanistan and even adding to the US military personnel now serving in Afghanistan.
 
Second, Trump’s foreign policy approach is based on his stances expressed during his election campaign.
 
During a campaign speech among nearly 10,000 of his supporters in Asheville, North Carolina, Donald Trump lashed out at the security conditions of some of the US inner cities. He compared their security to that of Afghanistan and said: “places like Afghanistan are safer than US inner cities.”
 
“The inner cities have been run for many years by Democrats and it's the same old thing," Trump told his enthusiastic supporters.
 
Trump said that his duty was to change this situation. He continued that the inner cities needed new administrative plans. These remarks during his campaign addresses lay bare his concern with country’s internal challenges and issues rather than external matters.
 
On the other side, Trump was a serious opponent of Democratic Party’s– and even his own Republican Party’s– militarism like Iraq and Afghanistan invasions and military force deployment to Syria and Yemen. Trump’s opposition is triggered by the heavy war costs. So, it appears that he will shift the national expenses from military campaigns to the people’s welfare.
 
A collection of these issues show that although Trump managed to win the presidential votes as a Republican candidate, the pre and post-election remarks of the Republicans show that they reluctantly accepted Trump, and even some Republican activists urged their party to focus on the House rather than the presidential election in a bid to save domination of the party on the House and the Senate.
 
In fact, Trump was a bone in the throat of the Republicans. So, his election will raise different scenarios about his relations with members of the House and the Senate. A couple of scenarios can be imagined for Afghanistan in Trump period:
 
1. Should Trump as a Republican stay loyal to his party's principles and policies, the very clear outcome is that the plans for the US military forces' exit from Afghanistan will be cancelled. Washington could even deploy more personnel to Afghanistan. Actually the way of Trump’s treatment of Afghanistan will be overshadowed by the Republican Party’s general policies. And we need to know that the policies of the Republicans follow steps taken by the former President George W. Bush in Afghanistan.
 
2. If Trump wants to implement his campaign promises and stances when he takes the office, he will reduce the number of the US troops in Afghanistan. He during the campaign days several times doubted that the US military will have a long-term presence in Afghanistan. He, actually, came against Washington’s measures in Afghanistan under the excuse of nation building.
 
Donald Trump said he was sorry that the US “wasted” billions of dollars in Afghanistan. He argued that the Obama administration could spend the big money on “rebuilding America.” These remarks showcase his willingness to reduce US forces in Afghanistan.
 
3. The third scenario could suggest a compromise and modification of positions of both Trump and his Republican Party. In other words, Trump’s win of the presidency on the one hand and Republican Party’s domination over the Senate on the other hand could pave the way for them to review stances and move closer to each other through easing the disagreements. In this situation, Afghanistan will witness a kind of volatility pendulum condition in terms of the quality and number of the US forces on its soil.
 
4. We can bring in spotlight the Afghan conditions from a different angle: continuation of the US strategic policies in Afghanistan and only giving them some small size, short-term changes along with change of president. This could include shifts in some tactics.
 
The remarks of the US ambassador to Afghanistan Michael McKinley in responding to a question about influences of election of each candidate of the US presidential race on the Washington-Kabul relations was a proof to the above-mentioned claims.
 
Highlighting the long-term US commitment for cooperation with Afghanistan and reiteration of this commitment during the NATO’s recent meeting in Warsaw and International Afghanistan Donors' Conference in Brussels, McKinley evaluated the US-Afghanistan ties as strong and close. He said these ties were not built on elections or party leadership, rather, they were established on common interest and common values. All in all, realization of each of these scenarios is tied to domestic and international conditions of Afghanistan and the US.
 
Meanwhile, Trump’s degree of fulfilment of his campaign promises in different fields, the US Senate and House members' way of dealing with the issues ahead, Afghanistan’s current circumstances like the security challenges particularly including Taliban’s activity as well as rise of ISIS terrorist group in this country, and a slew of other economic and political problems can tilt the balance in favor of each of the above-mentioned scenarios.
 
The Afghan President Ashraf Ghani issued a congratulatory statement to Trump, trying to call Trump’s attention to Afghanistan and tip the scales in his favor. In his statement, the Afghan president called the US as one of Afghan people's and government's significant and strategic partners in their battle against terrorism. Ghani hoped that close cooperation with the new US president will boost the two countries' relations even further.