Egyptian Expert: Syria’s Assad is Necessary to Avoid Chaos

Alwaght: What do you have to tell us about the news of Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco ceasing oil exports to Egypt under pressures from top Saudi officials? What about the reports of some Arab countries trying to mediate between Riyadh and Cairo to help repair troubled ties?
 
Abdel Fattah: I think that the Saudi-Egyptian relations have been suffering from tense conditions since 2013 when the Israeli and American intelligence services leaked conversation of el-Sisi and his advisor when he was defense minister, calling the Persian Gulf Arab states “semi-states.” This was the first essential tension-making point. Then came the issue of the Egyptian Red Sea islands that were granted to Saudi Arabia by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. But due to popular rejection the case was raised in country’s supreme court which later insisted that the islands were Egyptian and the president did not reserve the right to give them to Saudi Arabia. The third issue was Egypt’s pro-Russian Security Council resolution vote on Syria. When Cairo voted in favor of the Russia-proposed Syria resolution, Saudi Arabia took this as an excuse to send messages to Egypt telling it that the Persian Gulf Arab states were discontented with the Egyptian positions on Syria. But the last message of the Arab anger was sent by Saudi Arabia's Aramco to Egypt. This pushed Egypt to seek alternative oil sources. Now after win of Trump, whose anti-Saudi positions are clear to all, the Emirati crown prince visited Cairo with a Saudi advice to help restore their relations.
 
Alwaght: Does Saudi Arabia have the right to cut the oil exports to Egypt this way, especially that we know that they have an official 5-year-long oil export contract which is worth $24 billion?
 
Abdel Fattah: This oil supply is considered as an aid to Egypt, so Saudi Arabia gave itself the right to cease it. Certainly, ethically it cannot halt the oil supply but legally and technically it can do so. This is an aid deal more than a purchase deal. Now that Trump is elected president of the US, the closeness to Egypt has become a necessity for the Arab countries, especially that they need to face Trump’s policies in the region. So, the Arab contacts with Egypt came as part of this need.
 
Alwaght: Are there alternative oil sources available to Egypt? Can Iraq be the alternative, particularly after the Cairo-Baghdad recent closeness? 
 
Abdel Fattah: Yes, there are several alternatives available to Cairo like Iraq, Libya, and Algeria. Egypt will not face essential problems to replace the Saudi oil. Perhaps the kingdom will soon review its decision. Even if it does not resume oil exports, Cairo will not face any problems. Egypt wants to flex muscles and send a message to Saudi Arabia to tell it that its difficult economic conditions will not stop it from being the greatest Arabia country, and that the economic troubles will not eliminate the history, the geography, and the civilization.
 
Alwaght: Do you think Trump’s stances on Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf Arab states collectively will lead to a closeness to Egypt, especially with the positive signs we see between el-Sisi and Trump?
 
Abdel Fattah: I think that the US-Egypt relations will see a thaw during Trump period. This was clear when Trump and el-Sisi met in New York during the latter’s visit of the US to take part in the UN General Assembly. Trump hailed Egypt’s el-Sisi for his counterterrorist moves. This can draw them closer. This pushed Riyadh to seek rapprochement with Cairo.
 
Alwaght: Why are Egypt's stances on Syria different from those of the Persian Gulf Arab states?
 
Abdel Fattah: As it is clear, Saudi Arabia insists on the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s removal from power, because it considers him a Shiite Muslim and so an Iran’s arm. Furthermore, the kingdom has a persistent concern about Tehran's attempts to dominate the region, and that Saudi Arabia one day will be a target of this Iranian domination seeking. This comes while Egypt sees Assad’s stay as necessary to steer clear of chaos in Syria while there is no alternative for him. Perhaps if he falls, the terrorist groups seize the power. This issue is the source of difference between the two sides' positions on Syria.
 
Alwaght: Do you think distance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt will affect Cairo’s stance on the Saudi-led war against Yemen?
 
Abdel Fattah: Well, Egypt is member of anti-Yemeni Saudi-led military coalition. However, it declined so far to intervene directly. Saudi Arabia itself is concerned about the weak Egyptian role in Yemen war. I think that at the end of the road, Cairo will remain on its position which calls for saving Yemen’s unity, avoiding military intervention, and backing political solution.
 
Alwaght: What are Riyadh’s available options after the Egyptian supreme court imposed a ban on granting the Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia?
 
Abdel Fattah: Saudi Arabia has not many choices in this case. There are no documents and evidences proving the Saudi ownership of the two Red Sea islands. The Egyptian court will not review its decision. On the other hand, President el-Sisi and the government know well that they are put to the (people's) test when it comes to this case. I do not think they escalate against the nation, particularly after the supreme court's announcement of illegality of the transfer of the islands to Saudi Arabia.