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Sunday 15 May 2011 - 08:47

'Yemen on the brink of civil war'

Interview with Lawrence Davidson, author and historian, Pennsylvania
Story Code : 71999
Islam Times reports from Saleh, who has been in office since 1978, recently rejected a plan proposed by the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council ([P]GCC) that offers him immunity in return for his resignation.

Press TV discusses the failure of the PGCC deal, the power of the opposition and the Yemeni people's aspirations with Lawrence Davidson, author and historian in Pennsylvania, US. Following is a transcript of the interview.

Press TV: What do you think of the constant use of brute force against the protesters in Yemen by the Saleh regime?

Davidson: I think it's within the general pattern of what's happening in the region. Since the relatively successful Arab spring, if you want to call it that, in Tunisia and Egypt, every other regime that's been confronted with demonstrators has reacted violently. And I think Bahrain really set the tone for all other confrontations.

If that's the case, either you're going to have a bloody suppression of whoever hits the streets non-violently or you're going to have an escalation towards civil war. And I think in the case of Yemen you are right on the brink of civil war.

Press TV: Tell us about the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council deal. Up until now, it has failed. Now the secretary general of the bloc is in the Yemeni capital again. What are the chances of the deal going through this time?

Davidson: I think the chances are relatively slim. What the [Persian] Gulf countries want, as is the case with the Americans, is a certain definition of stability. And they don't understand that relying on this regime to maintain stability by brute force will only breed higher levels of instability.

So I don't think the [Persian] Gulf [Cooperation] Council resolutions or attempts to broker a deal here are going to work. And I don't think the Americans are going to abandon Saleh until they're forced to. That seems to be coming in terms of civil war rather than in the case of Egypt where you had the protests reach a certain critical level and then Obama simply backed off. I don't think that's the tactic or strategy anymore.

Press TV: Who is playing maestro in drumming up this PGCC deal and what does the deal really seek to achieve?

Davidson: I don't think there is a maestro actually. Ideally what they're trying to achieve is some way of getting this guy to leave in a way that will preserve the continuity of the power structure that will cooperate with the US in Yemen.

Essentially, if the protesters appear to the Americans and the Arabs to be focusing on Saleh then the attempt will be to change the face so you have the same type of team and cooperation, but you just have a different guy in there. That is essentially, in my opinion, as far as the Americans and the [Persian] Gulf Arabs have analyzed this situation. I think they're completely mislead; completely wrong.

Saleh is just a tip of an iceberg and this has gone on so far that just removing him is not going to satisfy anybody that's hitting the streets and risking sniper's bullets -- so he's the symbol, but just removing him is not going to be satisfactory.

The Americans and the [Persian] Gulf Arabs - I don't think they really understand what they're dealing with here and I don't think at least at the top level they understand the risks.

Press TV: You've talked about satisfying the people - Tell us more about the legitimacy of the deal itself. If it doesn't represent the aspirations of the people - demands include Saleh to stand trial and be accountable for the crackdown on anti-regime demonstrators and crimes committed under its regime. This deal grants him immunity from all of that. Where does that leave the people's demands?

Davidson: It leaves them frustrated as long as there is not some process that can essentially appear to have an end that would be acceptable to a range of opposition groups in Yemen and in other places too; and unless you get that kind of solution you're not going to get peace.

I don't think Saleh wants peace in the streets, he wants civil war. That's the type of guy he is - he's thinking let's just have it out. That is something I don't think the Americans or the [Persian] Gulf Arabs really want. But they don't know how to deal with this. They don't know how to get this guy out if he's going to be recalcitrant.

Press TV: What can you tell us about the Yemeni opposition is it a united front and does it represent the aspirations of the people?

Davidson: I don't think it's a united front. There are multiple groups - regional and generational, and clearly the [P]GCC attempt at a compromise was also an attempt to split the opposition.

In a case like this you have a whole range of folks, some more conservative others more demanding; so the [P]GCC deal might appeal to some of the more moderate elements and you try to break them away from those more demanding. I don't think that's worked, but I think it was part of the ploy.

Therefore, if this slips into civil war then you've got a case where the opposition is not organized or together so you run the risk of the regime forces picking them off one by one.

Hopefully there is some organization at some level that can in fact quickly create a united front and have organized opposition even in the face of potential war. Otherwise they will get picked off one by one and get slaughtered.
Source : Press TV
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