Scholar: Closure of Houston Consulate Marks Shift of US’ China Policy towards Confrontation

"[China] has engaged for years in massive illegal spying and influence operations throughout the United States against US government officials and American citizens," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus stated while commenting on the development.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the closure of the People's Republic's diplomatic mission in Houston as an "unprecedented escalation", vowing to "react with firm countermeasures" if the US does not backtrack on its decision.

"At this stage, we don’t know the details behind the decision to ask the Chinese consulate in Houston to leave within 72 hours," says Dr. Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute [CGAI].

The latest diplomatic row comes amid the background of worsening Sino-American relations related to ongoing trade frictions, the coronavirus pandemic, and the US announcement that it regards Beijing's claims in the South China Sea under the so-called "nine dash line" as null and void.

The People's Republic is likely to resort to a "symmetric response" to the latest White House move, claims Adam Ni, director of the Ottawa-based China Policy Centre.

"Beijing will likely retaliate by ordering the closing of one of the US consulates in China," he foresees, admitting that "Beijing and Washington are locked in intensifying strategic competition as well as the worst deterioration of relations in decades".

However, as Beijing usually does not want to appear to be escalating tensions, China's retaliation to the Trump administration’s demand is likely to be limited to targeting a single US consulate in a second-tier city or, perhaps in one of the first-tier cities, Stephen Nagy ventures.

Both observers believe that one can expect further escalation in the days and weeks to come with 2020 elections nearing. "This means pressure on all fronts including the most sensitive areas such as Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan," Nagy observes, suggesting that US-China bilateral relations will continue to deteriorate in the coming months and even years.

"Underlying all this is strategic competition, and the sharp turn of US' China policy towards confrontation," Adam Ni warns.

Prior to the demand to close the Houston consulate, the US slapped sanctions on 11 Chinese organizations on 20 July, over the alleged abuse of human rights in Xinjiang, by prohibiting them from buying American technology and other goods. Earlier, Washington imposed visa and asset restrictions against Chinese politicians over purported abuses of the Uighur minority. The Chinese government responded to the latter batch of US measures in a tit-for-tat manner, exerting sanctions against American senators including Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.