FP: MBS Should Be Very Worried About Biden

Mohammed bin Salman [MBS] bet big on US President Donald Trump’s reelection when he gave his tacit approval to the decision by his Emirati counterpart, Mohammed bin Zayed [MBZ], to sign a “peace” deal with the Arab world supposed archenemy “Israel”. But if Joe Biden wins, the Saudi position, which came at the cost of offending Muslim sentiment globally, makes him look more isolated.

At the start of Trump’s presidency, MBS wooed Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, and even referred to him – and by implication the US president – as being “in his pocket.”

The two 30-something novices on the world stage played statesmen and forged a close relationship. In strategic terms, that meant close coordination on Iran and the region and US backing for Mohammed bin Salman’s rise to power. The crown prince in particular was emboldened by Trump’s support and took an ever more bullish position on Tehran.

Biden, however, has promised to reengage with Iran and reinstate the nuclear deal in some form. If that happens, and sanctions are lifted again, Iran would, in the Saudi view, have the funds to expand its arc of influence from Tehran through Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and as far as Yemen.

It is not clear if and how Biden intends to continue containing Iran’s ambitions in the absence of sanctions. That is a major cause for Saudi concern.

But more generally Biden described Saudi Arabia as a pariah and promised to treat it as such. He has also supported the findings of the CIA that the brutal killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was indeed ordered by the Saudi crown prince. Whether that makes a difference to policy toward Saudi Arabia in practice is one of the big foreign-policy questions arising from the election.