What Would Egypt Do as Israeli War on Gaza Rages on Next Door?

The hardline Israeli government plans a ground offensive on Gaza, but it is afraid that Hamas kills the Israeli prisoners in reaction, or mistakenly strike its own prisoners in Gaza. Therefore, Egypt’s role is felt more than that of other countries as it is the only country having ground border with Gaza. 

The halt of movement and the deterioration of humanitarian conditions in Gaza presents to the Egyptian decision-makers urgent and complex questions regarding Cairo’s role and the consequences of the deterioration of the situation in the Gaza Strip. In other words, Cairo leaders are now in the front of a dilemma; they can open Rafah border crossing with Gaza and help the Gazans under unceasing Israeli bombing campaign, or they can turn a blind eye to Israeli massacre in Palestine in service of Tel Aviv interests. 

Although it was expected that the Egyptian government would open its border to the residents of Gaza in this disastrous situation, where thousands of people have been killed and injured and hundreds of thousands of others have been displaced, the Egyptian Ministry of Interior Affairs announced on Tuesday that the Egyptian side told Gaza authorities in a message that due to the security threat posed by bombardment, they should immediately close the border crossing. 

An Egyptian government source told Meda Masr news website that Israel has threatened to target Egypt’s aids to Gaza and has rejected Cairo’s repeated requests for help to mitigate the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, and that is why the Egyptian government decided to retreat trucks carrying vital aids and fuel to Gaza. 

Closing the Rafah crossing and leaving the people of Gaza alone serves the Israeli interests, which is seeking to inflict heavy losses on the people of Gaza, and with a severe economic blockade and cutting off humanitarian aid and even water and electricity, it is trying to force Hamas to retreat and free the Israeli prisoners. 

Some analysts have made assumptions about Egypt’s role at this critical time, including its ability to contain the situation through mediation initiatives, given the concern about the marginalization of the country’s regional and historical role in relation to the Palestinian issue, on which until recently it had a lot of influence But now its influence is under a big threat, in which case it has to support the Palestinian side to save its image. 

On the other hand, given the internal Egyptian challenges and the fear of the exploitation of the current crisis in the occupied territories, Egypt is weighing up the situation perhaps to wrest privileges from Israeli government. Perhaps closing of Rafah and preventing influx of Palestinians into Egypt is part of this Cairo scenario. 

Some Egyptian sources told Sky News Arabia that if the siege and bombardment of Gaza are intensified, thousands of people may climb the walls of the Rafah border crossing like in 2007 and storm Egypt to get the food they need, but this time Cairo will not allow the scenario of 15 years ago to repeat itself. Therefore, Egypt’s actions will put the people of Gaza in grave consequences at a time Gazans are left to the mercy of the Israeli bombardment campaign. 

Place of Palestine dispute in Egyptian elections 

The conflict between the Palestinian resistance and Tel Aviv has taken place in a sensitive political and economic situation in Egypt. In less than two months, Egypt will hold a presidential election in which President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will run again amid widespread anger over record inflation and a debt crisis the likes of which Egypt has never experienced before. And because Palestine case captivates more focus and importance from the Islamic world these days, Palestine will rank among the top cases and the presidential candidates should make their positions on it clear. 

Egyptian public opinion fully support the Palestinian cause and victory of the Palestinian resistance groups over the Israeli regime makes the Egyptians happy. The massive popular protests in support of the Palestine in recent years in Egypt and the killing of three Israeli border guards by an Egyptian soldier in June, as well as the killing of two Israeli tourists in Egypt on Monday show that the Egyptians, unlike their politicians, do not make any concessions to the Israeli occupation and will stand by their Palestinian brother as ever. 

But el-Sisi, who holds ambitions for staying in power, does not want to weaken his power foundations by involving too much in the Gaza conflict, and that is why he emphasized on Tuesday that Egypt’s national security is his first responsibility. 

“There should be no feeling of complacency and neglect in Egypt’s national security under any circumstances, and the Egyptian people must be aware of the complexities of the situation and be aware of the magnitude of the threat,” he was quoted as saying during a Police Academy graduation ceremony. 

Therefore, due to the sensitive conditions in the occupied territories, the upcoming elections in Egypt will be a tough test for the politicians of this country who can attract public support with the Palestinian case. 

Egypt’s historical role in the Palestinian developments 

Before Camp David agreement with Israel, Egypt was the biggest backer of the Palestinians and in four wars, it led the Arab front against Israeli occupation. Under President Gamal Abdel Naser, who was an advocate of the Arab nationalism, Cairo tried to unite all Arabs against Tel Aviv. Egypt never withheld its support to the Palestinians before the US-mediated agreement of September 1978. 

With this bright track record, Egypt is usually a heavyweight in the mediation and can put pressure on Tel Aviv and various international parties to prevent the deterioration of the situation in Gaza. 

Over the past four decades, Egypt has always played as a mediator between the Palestinians and the Israelis; however, the Israeli-Egyptian relations went frayed in recent years, especially after the normalization deals with Persian Gulf Arab monarchies that are trying to handle the Palestinian case. 

Actually, the Egyptian leaders do not want to be under the flag of such countries as the UAE and Saudi Arabia and are pushing to maintain their central role in the Palestinian cause. Meanwhile, Gaza war is the best opportunity for Cairo to once again test its chance to regain its past position and captivate the Arab public opinion’s attention. 

Western countries pressuring Egypt 

Unlike Iran that overtly and covertly backs armed Palestinian groups and is not afraid to do so, Egypt has a more complicated situation and and support for the Palestinian groups can impose on it a heavy political and security price. 

Having in mind that the US and European countries are the main supporters of the Israeli regime and have declared their support for the crimes of this regime in Gaza, any country that is on the side of Hamas will without a doubt be considered a sponsor of terrorism in the eyes of the leaders of the White House and Brussels. Washington officials in the past few days have issued warnings to the countries that support Palestine. Some sources have told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed news website that Egypt is under heavy pressure from the Israeli government and its allies in Washington and Brussels, who accuse Cairo of not using its influence to prevent Hamas escalation. 

One of the consequences of Egypt’s support for Hamas could be that the US would cancel military contracts with the country, something that some pro-Israeli senators have been seeking in recent months. Chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ben Cardin issued a statement last week saying that arms sales to Cairo and military aids are tied to improvement of human rights situation in the country. 

From another aspect, backing Hamas and opening Rafah Border Crossing do not appeal to some Persian Gulf Arab monarchies, on top of them Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Abu Dhabi is one of the few Arab countries that stands by the Israeli government and not only has not condemned the Israeli crimes in Gaza, but also warned the Syrian government that it should not interfere in the Palestinian conflict, because Emirati rulers think that Syrian involvement would be beneficial to the rival Iran-led Axis of Resistance and will put the Israeli regime in a tight spot. 

Gaza war is a serious test for Egyptian policies in support of the Palestinian cause. Cairo rulers are in a difficult situation as they are on the one hand afraid of losing their role in the Palestinian conflict and on the other hand are concerned that Israel may push to relocate Gaza population to Sinai. Now it remains to see if Egypt in the future would play its central role in the Palestinian case to enhance its embattled political weight or would be caught by a fear that costs it its key role.