Gaza War: How’s US Fishing in Troubled Waters?

The AFP in a report addressing the Blinken visit to the region and especially meeting with Saudi officials said that the top American diplomat discussed Gaza and normalization deal with Riyadh. The report added that before returning home, Blinken told the journalists that he discussed Saudi normalization with Israeli regime. 

Blinken’s claim comes while the war in Gaza is now at its most intense way and Blinken is talking about the normalization of relations with Tel Aviv in surprise talks in Saudi Arabia. Previous US efforts to establish possible ties between Saudi Arabia and the Israeli regime have stalled after the outbreak of the Gaza war in the past three months. 

Gaza is now mourning the loss of more than 23,000 of its civilians, most of whom were women and children, but it seems that the number of civilian casualties in the Gaza war does not matter much to Washington, and instead of listening to human rights calls to stop the war against Gaza, the Americans prioritize Tel Aviv-Riyadh normalization. 

Some Western sources, including the Washington Post, have said that in its latest proposal to Saudi Arabia, the US suggested resuming normalization process in return for stopping the war on Gaza. 

Secretary Blinken visited the region four times since the beginning of the Gaza war in early October, and he visited the Arab kingdom at least twice. Despite the fact that in the previous trips, he only discussed the Gaza war, Blinken’s reference to the fact that a broader agreement with the countries of the region, including Saudi Arabia, is ahead means that Washington sees the Gaza war as an opportunity helping it pursue its special foreign policy goals. 

Actually, tying the stopping of Gaza war to Israeli-Saudi normalization is now an agenda the White House is pursuing, but it is unclear whether the Americans would make any gains in this regard. 

There is already a broad discontentment with the Biden’s performance and his foreign policy is at the center of Republican attacks. The Republican hardliners blast the president’s policy as weak and incapable of protecting the Israeli security. Now, in the last year of Biden’s presidency, White House leaders are striving to address and alleviate criticism aimed at themselves while preparing for the upcoming election. 

Resumption of normalization can represent a major electoral gain for Biden and that is why the White House is trying to fish in troubled waters to avoid going to the presidential race with empty hands. 

Normalization at a stalemate 

Despite the US efforts to push normalization forward amid Gaza war, it seems that it faces a serious obstacle. 

The Saudi approval of normalization with Tel Aviv is within a framework Riyadh calls ‘Arab peace initiative’— a relatively old initiative formulated by Saudi Arabia and proposes foundation of an independent Palestinian state with Eastern Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital and retreat of Israel to 1967 borders in return for full Arab normalization with Tel Aviv. But currently, there is no sign of negotiations in Tel Aviv on the formation of an independent Palestinian state, and even in the middle of the Gaza war, the fate of Gaza has become a new challenge alongside the occupation of the West Bank. In other words, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is now more out of reach than ever. 

Another obstacle is the role of Saudi Arabia and the ruling family as the ‘Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.’ This title gives the Saudi rulers a political and religious legitimacy. Normalization of relations with Israel means Riyadh recognizing a central role for a Jewish regime. The Saudi leaders are afraid that this will grant a golden opportunity to the critics to cast doubt on the religious legitimacy of the ruling House of Saud. 

From another aspect and most importantly, the Americans claim that Israeli motivation to revive normalization talks with Riyadh is driven by prospects of Saudi and Arab contribution to Gaza reconstruction. But it is highly likely that they will not help reconstruct an Israeli-occupied Gaza. The Persian Gulf monarchies that have already provided the Palestinians with billions of dollars in funding and aids say they are not interested to carry on without a real and irreversible path for peaceful solution to the Palestinian cause in sight.