Has the Balance of Deterrence Between Iran and Israel Been Disrupted?

The direct confrontation between Iran and the Zionist regime is escalating day by day, suggesting a shift in the traditional deterrence equations between Tehran and Tel Aviv following the operation " al-Aqsa Storm."

Just a few days after the missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on one of the main Mossad bases in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, completely destroying it with precision missiles in response to the terrorist attack in Kerman targeting and resulting in the martyrdom of Commander Seyyed Reza Mousavi, the Israeli regime once again targeted a facility housing Iranian advisory forces in Syrian territory. According to the official announcement by the IRGC, five high-ranking Iranian military advisors in Syria were martyred as a result of this attack that took place on Saturday afternoon in the security neighborhood of Damascus. Reports indicate that among the martyrs were senior officers from the Quds Force of the IRGC.

This escalating confrontation initially indicates signs of the Gaza war crisis expanding, a situation where the flames of war are currently visible from the borders of Lebanon and the occupied territories to the coasts of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, extending to American bases in Iraq. For this reason, many governments are issuing warnings about the possibility of the situation becoming even more fragile.

The current situation is such that the two central entities in this equation, namely the Axis of Resistance on one side and the Zionist regime on the other, based on the analysis of the conditions, see the expansion of the scope of war as the only inevitable solution ahead of them.

The Zionist regime, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu, finds itself in a grand quagmire. If it emerges from the Gaza war without significant military achievements, there will be severe security and military repercussions for the Israeli regime, potentially leading to the unavoidable end of the political life of the extremist cabinet.

In the initial weeks of the military operations in Gaza, Zionist leaders, in their calculations, envisioned a complete defeat of Hamas, military occupation of Gaza, and the release of all Zionist captives as the quid pro quo for the perceived success in the operation "al-Aqsa Storm" and the consequent restoration of deterrence equations to their previous state. However, now, over 100 days into the regime's military adventure in Gaza, not only have none of the initial war objectives been achieved in the short term, but even the Zionist leaders themselves admit that the long-term prospect of destroying Hamas and freeing captives through military action is not possible.

In this situation, the effort to expand the war, which can open up a military confrontation with the Resistance and protect Netanyahu's warmongering cabinet from widespread domestic criticism by prolonging the war and increasing the Zionist regime's casualties and its inability to defeat a quasi-military group in the very small geographical area of Gaza, is the only solution seen by Tel Aviv authorities.

On the other side, the resistance forces, based on the Palestinian desire and Hamas, following the logic of the strategic military and security coalition, and based on the ideological principles of religious duty to help the oppressed Palestinian people, insist on activating other fronts against Tel Aviv and its main supporter, the United States, until the end of the Zionist army's aggressive invasion of civilians in Gaza. This insistence serves as an alternative and a pressure tool against the silence of institutions and governments that have procrastinated and been inactive in fulfilling their duty to stop the Zionist killing machine.

In fact, the Axis of Resistance also sees the expansion of the war as a warning to alert the United States and other Western and non-Western supporters of the Israeli regime, highlighting the dangers of the continued military operations by the Zionists in Gaza. This aims to ignite peace and regional stability, drawing attention to the disastrous consequences for the interests of these countries.

In the ongoing conflict, the Zionists are increasingly attempting to portray themselves as directly engaged in a battle with Iran. Their goal is to divert public attention from the perceived shortcomings of their supposedly invincible army in the small Gaza front and present an image of a broader regional confrontation against a formidable military force, namely Iran. This effort includes highlighting perceived achievements in their encounters, such as the assassination of military advisers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria.

Netanyahu, perceiving his aspirations and the survival of his idealistic cabinet as contingent on strikes from Gaza's resistance groups, has consistently boasted about "hitting the snake's head" and advocating for a "direct war with Iran." On Thursday (January 18), he reiterated these statements, responding to a reporter's question about why Israel attacks proxy forces instead of directly targeting Iran, stating, "Who said Israel doesn't attack Iran? We are attacking Iran."

In this intensifying confrontation, although the Islamic Republic has shown a commitment to proportionate responses against Israeli actions, retaliating for the destruction of the Mossad intelligence headquarters in northern Iraq and the killing of high-ranking Israeli intelligence officers, it is the Zionists and the warmongering Netanyahu cabinet that are more focused on employing media, propaganda, and psychological tactics to shape an environment conducive to initiating direct engagement between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

In fact, the question arises as to why Netanyahu's war cabinet is reluctant to highlight the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is conducting daily operations in the northern front of the occupied territories, inflicting casualties on Zionist forces. Or why do the fighter jets and warships of the Israeli army not engage with the Yemenis to defend their naval fleets? Does Netanyahu's war cabinet believe that Iran's military capability for the destruction of Israel is less than that of Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Yemeni forces, leading them to adopt a confrontational stance against Tehran while maintaining a defensive and self-contained posture against other resistance forces?

The answer lies in the fact that Netanyahu and his allies in the regime's collapsing cabinet acknowledge the incapacity and absolute zero chance of the Zionist army against Iran's military power. A direct war with Tehran is not something the leaders in Tel Aviv contemplate. Instead, Zionist authorities are more focused on portraying a broadened war front for domestic public perception. This aims to downplay the defeat against Hamas and encourage Tehran to exhibit an emotional response, thereby involving the United States in an extensive war against the Axis of Resistance.