Will Al-Sadr Re-embrace Anti-American Struggle? Evidence and Motivations

Meanwhile, Washington’s quest of various ways, from diplomatic pressures on government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to carrying out attacks on the sites of the Iraqi resistance groups, not only have made no gains and these groups even broadened scope of their targets, but also these days a political campaign is underway in the parliamentary negotiations to expel the Americans from the country, something that seems to inflame the military confrontation with Washington in the upcoming weeks and months given the dim outlook for end of Gaza war and the American disrespect to the Iraqi sovereignty. 

Given this assumption, expectation of surprises in Iraq developments is not unthinkable. This raises a question: Will the Muqtada al-Sadr, a long-term champion of anti-occupation struggle, break the political and military self-isolation and join the anti-American campaign as a savior of the Iraqi security and independence? 

Although Moqtada al-Sadr played the role of a prominent political and religious leader in the developments of Iraq in recent years, in the early years after the military occupation of Iraq by the US, al-Sadr became the spearhead of the military struggle against the occupiers by founding a militant group called Jaish al-Mahdi (Army of Mahdi). This struggle made him recognized as the most important anti-American element in the Iraqi developments for a long time. In fact, despite the fact that a large part of the Iraqi political factions had remained silent in dealing with the occupation of this country by the Americans and chosen the path of compromise to George W. Bush administration as their political strategy, al-Sadr was the most important Iraqi figure who explicitly called for the American pullout and named the US an “occupation force” on the Iraqi soil. 

From 2003 to 2008, Jaish al-Mahdi fought against the US occupation in the cities of Baghdad, Basra and Najaf, and inflicted heavy human and material losses on the US and the allies foreign forces. Even in the following years, when in 2008 al-Sadr issued the order to dissolve Jaish al-Mahdi and started engagement in politics and electoral equations, the most important condition he set for joining government of PM Nouri al-Maliki was setting a precise and staged schedule for the US withdrawal. 

He maintained his anti-American approach after rise of ISIS terrorist group, and al-Sadr several times called for end of presence of US-led international coalition in Iraq, stressing that the Iraqis themselves can defend the country against the terrorist group and do not need Washington. 

After dissolution of Jaish al-Mahdi in 2008, he formed Saraya al-Salam, and in January 2020 and following the US assassination of Iran’s General Qassam Soleimani and Iraq’s Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad International Airport, he released a statement calling for re-establishing Jaish al-Mahdi and threatened Washington with revenge. 

Even when political differences with other Shiite forces broke out following the 2018 and 2021 parliamentary elections, al-Sadr did not change his opposition to the American military presence and interference in the country’s politics, and maintained his position as an advocate to the national independence and sovereignty. 

Al-Sadr walked out of politics after October 2021 parliamentary elections that was followed by a months-long crisis, and since then, he rarely made comments on the political developments. After Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7 and the ruthless Israeli war that won all-out American support, al-Sadr like other Iraqi leaders, Axis of Resistance, and Muslim world clerics lashed out at Tel Aviv for its crimes. For example, on November 7, he published an X post, calling the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu the “pharaoh of the time.” He also accused the US of being accomplice to Israeli terrorism in Gaza and Palestine. 

In his X message that followed the temporary Gaza ceasefire, he said: “Ceasefire helps curb the Zionist-American terrorism that targets the Palestinian nation.” 

Earlier, he had published a post on X, saying: “Here is another victory for them [Palestinian resistance] with the beginning of a ceasefire foisted on the barbaric enemy.” 

Al-Sadr’s solidarity with Gaza and the Palestinian resistance demonstrated that the powerful Shiite cleric recognizes support to the Palestinian cause as an inseparable part of his political and ideological discourse. This thought and approach is what holds all the resistance movements in a single bond across the region. Meanwhile, the heightening of public support across the Muslim world and Iraq to the heroic Gaza people can motivate al-Sadr to revive his anti-American and Israeli activities. 

In recent weeks, Washington’s open support for the Israeli military operations in Gaza and the important role of the White House in blocking international efforts to stop the war not only risked expansion of ongoing conflict between the Iraqi and Syrian-based resistance groups and the occupational US military presence on the Iraqi and Syrian soil, but also triggered heated debate in the Iraqi politics on the US withdrawal from Iraq. 

As part of the official measures, the Iraqi government recently sent a text message to the Iraqi people asking their opinion about the American military presence in the country. This move, however, drew strong criticism by many Iraqi political figures who described it a sign the government is unresolved about expulsion of the American forces. 

Also, the Al-Nujaba Movement has strongly criticized a phone call of Iraqi National Security Advisor Qassem al-Aarji to the NATO. Al-Araji emphasized the Iraqi government’s commitment to protecting diplomatic missions and international military advisors, according to reports. 

The US aggressive attacks in Iraq targeting Public Mobilization Forces (PMF), a voluntary force formed in opposition to ISIS in 2014 and part of the official Iraqi armed forces have even provoked the protest of senior army commanders. After last week’s US airstrikes, Major General Yahya Rasool, the spokesman of the Supreme Command of the Iraqi Armed Forces, warned that “this unacceptable action undermines cooperation of years and leads to an irresponsible escalation of tensions, at a time the region is under the risk of the conflict spillover and the consequences of the aggression against Gaza.” Major General Rasool also condemned the attacks and called them “an obvious violation of Iraqi sovereignty.” 

The rising anti-American sentiments are possibly the factor that can trigger re-rise of al-Sadr as the champion of defense of independence and national sovereignty against foreign interference. Or, al-Sadr’s self-isolation amid surging tensions can lead to military defection in Sadrist Movement’s ranks and joining the factions active in anti-occupation fight. After all, the current resistance movements like Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, Kataib Hezbollah, and Al-Nujaba Movement that are spearheading the anti-American fight are all offshoots of Jaish al-Mahdi.