The American Settlement Show

We have been hearing this statement over, and over again from the different American presidents, and the different figures of the consecutive administrations. However, Israel has continued to build settlements and the US hasn't taken any measures to deter Israel. What became evident over the years that the US was just making verbal opposition to settlement building, but elevating her cooperation on mostly every level with Israel particularly on the strategic ones.

American Measures

Only president Bush, Sr. decided not to provide Israel financial guarantees in the early 1990's because of its settlement activities, but this measure was not strong enough to stop Israel, and it proved to be a failure. Israel went on, and the American measure disappeared, and the cries from all sides against the settlements went on. The Arabs have been complaining all the time, and asking the US to exert pressure on Israel, but receiving only tranquilizing words.

Probably the US truly means that the settlements are an obstacle to peace, but that obstacle doesn't worth more than verbal opposition. And when it is compared with the vital interests of the US in the area that Israel cooperates to fulfill, that obstacle doesn't mean a lot. Certainly, strategic interests have a priority to marginal interests, and measures are out of consideration when they become jeopardy.

The Arab regimes who are the underdogs have proved to be extremely incapable, and unwilling to do the job themselves are too weak to press the US to take tangible steps against Israel; and if they had the strength they wouldn't need to seek refuge in the US, and they would drive Israel out by force. The weakness of the Arabs, and their dependency on the US in security, economic and financial matters have comforted the US to give Israel all the time needed to create a Jewish society in the West Bank.

What I am saying that, in practical terms, the US has never been serious against the Israeli settlements, and gave Israel the support needed through different channels other than the mass media. The US extends financial, economic, military, political and diplomatic assistance to Israel, and if she was serious we could have seen practical steps against Israel. This American policy speaks for her-self in as far as the so called security wall is concerned. The US was consulted before Israel started building the wall, and Israel didn't start the project without the American consent. As Israel proceeded, the US played the role of line-correction.

The US listened to some Palestinian complaints and asked Israel to minimize Palestinian pains as much as possible; i.e. to the extent that doesn't jeopardize the Israeli security. That is why Israel decided to release the village of Baqa Ash-Sharqiyya near the city of Tulkerm, and to release one squared kilometer of land near Ramallah.

Obama against the Settlements

Now it is president Obama who has given firm and strong statements against the settlements. He was clear in his Cairo speech about the issue, and asked Israel to facilitate the path toward peace. At the beginning, Obama was against the settlements, then he started talking about freezing settlement activities, and now he is talking about a temporary freeze. His firm wordings have been shaking, and it is very possible that the time when he starts talking like his predecessor will come.

President Obama has tied the freeze of building settlement units with normalizing the relations between the Arabs and the Israelis. He keeps asking the Arab regimes to normalize the relations as Israel freezes building new housing units. Of course, what Obama hasn't being saying is that these regimes have been normalizing the relations with Israel for a long time, but he wants them to announce that and follow a well organized plan to normalize relations at the grass root level. The Egyptian, Jordanian, Moroccan, Tunisian, Qatari, Bahraini, Emirati, regimes have been normalizing, and even the Saudis have been cooperating with the Israelis on diplomatic and security matters. The Arab peoples generally have been opposing the normalizing process, and the regimes have a difficulty in marketing what they have been doing overtly or covertly over the years.

Obama just wants the Arab governments to follow the footsteps of the Palestinian Authority which has been coordinating with the Israelis on security matters against the Palestinian people. He wants the Arab governments to have the courage to be frank and truthful to their own peoples, and tell them that there is no chance but to accept Israel as a natural part of the Arab-Islamic area, and establish with her normal relations.

IF Israel takes steps that might make the Arab regimes look as if they have been achieving something for the Palestinians toward the establishment of a Palestinian state, then these regimes will be able to openly argue in favor of normalization. So what the American President is asking Israel to do is to concede a little bit for a little while in return of something that Israel has been seeking to achieve over the years. But Obama's major problem is that Israel is convinced that the Arabs finally concede without taking anything in return. These Arabs, according to the Israeli assessment, started with the rhetoric to erase Israel from the map, and ended now with the demand to halt settlement activities in the West Bank. So the whole Obama show is meant to strengthen the Arab regimes' argument in favor of Israel.

Obstacles facing the Show

There are major obstacles that face Obama regarding this settlement issue which I summarize in the following:

1-The present Israeli prime minister isn't going to yield because of internal considerations. He has a coalition built on ideology, and any deviation might topple the government.

2-Israel is strong enough in the US to face verbal pressures from the administration. There are the Jewish and Zionist well organized lobbies, the American Congress, and support of a good percentage of the American people.

3-The Arab regimes don't dare to take overt steps toward normalization because the whole area is witnessing the development of a new structure of power with shifts in the balance of power. The Arab-Israeli-American un-announced alliance is facing a real challenge from the un-declared Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, and the Arab regimes are facing real and tangible threats.

4-The Arabs aren't in a position to put pressure on the American administration because of their dependency on the US, and even on Israel in some security matters.

5-The Palestinians are so weak, and seemingly they have traded their national rights with personal privileges such as high salaries and brand new cars. They are incapable of embarrassing Obama or of mobilizing supporters in the US.

6-Obama will discover that the Arab regimes are just mere puppets who cannot make initiatives, and they are just dictatorships who are very much hated by their own peoples. These dictatorships are unstable, and they cannot survive with applying ruthless measures against their own people.


Netanyahu Makes a Move

Netanyahu recognizes that he is a prime minister in a world of unfettered interaction and mutual dependency. That is why he made a clever but deceptive move in ratifying hundreds of new housing units with an ambiguous promise of temporarily freezing the building of new settlements. So he gave permits for building the new units that will be built at the time of the freeze.

Israel froze building new units in the past for six months, but that didn't prevent Israel from building new settlements or new houses. As long as the other side is weak, and isn't up to the challenge, the Israeli policies will survive and nibble on the land of the West Bank. And Obama's major problem is the weakness of the Arab regimes not the stubbornness of the Israelis.

by Professor Abdul Sattar Kassem