Riyadh’s Regional Gamble May Result in Lose-Lose Situation

In addition to the leaders of the main four countries that declared anti-Qatari diplomatic steps, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the resigned and fugitive president of Yemen as well as leaders of Libya and Maldives joined the Saudi-led campaign of boycotting Doha politically and economically.
 
Saudi Arabia issued a statement about cutting the relationship with Qatar that indicating that the regime aimed to formally announce itself as the leader of Arab world. The Saudi statement accused Doha of sponsoring “terrorist groups” such as Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic group spreading across the Arab world and holding agenda in collision course with many Arab regimes. Riyadh blocked Doha from the sea, air, and ground, and asked the “brother and friend countries” to take the same steps.
 
The statement carried a major message: Saudi Arabia wants to take stances as a big brother of Arab states and leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Saudi demand also hints that those who are not with the US-backed regime are against it.
 
In fact, Riyadh now follows on the one hand seeks forging a comprehensive alliance against Iran, its regional archival, and on the other hand struggles to lead the Arab world no matter what it takes.
 
A question looks proper here: will Riyadh succeed in realizing its goals?
 
The point now is that to what extent the projected strategy of Riyadh can be implemented on the ground. The main idea here is that the Arab kingdom cannot serve its strategic goals through cutting ties and encouraging allies to cut ties with Qatar, and at the end of the road the new situation will turn into a lose-lose game for the Saudi rulers.
 
Two main reasons stand for such an idea:
 
Division grows among the Arab states
 
Aside from what happens today to the relations of the Saudi-led Arab camp and the rival Qatar, the recent diplomatic crisis has certainly caused gaps among the Arab states. A consideration of the economic and border troubles brought about for Doha as a result of the all-out siege can make us conclude that Qatar will very likely move to build alliance with Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, and even Iran to confront Saudi Arabia. This means a chasm in the Arab world that can concretely make the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council, a six-nation Arab bloc, inefficacious.
 
Therefore, the recent diplomatic row with Doha can never serve the Saudi interests since Riyadh for some time has been working on building an anti-Iranian Arab alliance in the region and was optimistic that its efforts will come to fruition. Such a dispute inside the body of the(PGCC can destroy the dreams of Saudi Arabia to build an Arab-Israeli alliance against Tehran.
 
Arab public opinion could question Saudi leadership's legitimacy
 
Moreover, the various dimensions of the fresh Saudi-led row with Qatar lay bare the fact that the main sticking points between the two sides are not issues like their conflicting stances on the Muslim Brotherhood or relations with Iran, rather the rift stems from a struggle between Riyadh and Doha over hegemony in the Arab world.
 
In past decade, the Saudi leaders had powerful rivals such as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak to conflict with over a regional hegemony, but the West Asian developments after the 2011 Arab uprisings cleared the scene for the Saudis from the former competitors, making Riyadh rulers flex muscles to signal the kingdom's leadership of the Arab world.
 
But opponents to Riyadh’s regional hegemony do not seem to have ended with Qatar being the very latest one. The Qatari leaders took postures that ran counter to the Saudi leadership of the Arab world. Seeing Doha doing so, the kingdom’s leaders took a big gamble that either can send the Arab world deeply polarized or can firm up the Riyadh’s hegemonic power in the Arab world.
 
No doubt, ejecting Qatar from the Saudi-led military coalition, labeling it as a state sponsor of regional terrorism, and taking the toughest punitive measures against it can be a product of Saudi Arabian policy that wants to send a message to other Arab states that any other Arab party that dare to stand against Riyadh will face the same fate, so the wisest way is submitting to Saudi Arabia being the big brother.
 
But the domineering desire of Saudi Arabia that in the new period showed a full face will be challenged in the short run with emergence of new contestants. To be clear, Saudi Arabia's hegemonic excess can draw aversion among the Arab public opinion to the Saudi leaders, a situation that will bring down their regional legitimacy.