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Saturday 1 July 2017 - 04:28

Waning US Influence in the Middle East

Story Code : 649759
Waning US Influence in the Middle East
The ultimatum presented to Doha by Riyadh is intentionally unachievable and effectively obliges Qatar to plead guilty to their ‘crimes’ or face the ‘undeclared’ consequences.
The demand calling for the closing of Al Jazeera, halting the financing of the Muslim Brotherhood and breaking economic, political and diplomatic relations with Iran are non-starters. The House of Thani has 3 more days to comply and announce that it is both evaluating the ‘proposals’ and dismissing them as unreasonable.
The King’s disposal of the Crown Prince, a major ally of the CIA and EU and US governments, with his son Prince Mohammad bin Salman, maybe the most controversial figure in the Middle East because of his devastating war in Yemen and the desperate financial state of Riyadh’s finances, didn’t much improve the Kingdom’s international relations at all.
The War Prince, as he is often called, oscillates between his Vision 2030 economic diversification plans on the one hand and his irrational anti-Iranian preoccupation that may push his kingdom to bankruptcy. 
Initially, the Qatar crisis appeared to be limited to the Gulf nations involved, however its severity was immediately perceived by Turkey as both Ankara and Doha have always played a leading role in the Muslim Brotherhood, a religious group that Riyadh had always considered to be terrorist organization threatening to their Wahabbi interpretation of Islam.
Ankara responded immediately in support of Doha by deploying about 3,000 troops to its new military base and dismissed the “useless and unresponsive” demand to abandon the base and withdraw their troops. 
Prince bin Salman threatened to support he Kurdish troops in Iraq and Syria if Ankara continued to support Doha. The once indissoluble union between Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, especially in their proxy war against Assad in Syria, today presents more than fracture and tension.
The fallout of this breakup is likely to not only benefit Syria but also its allies, Iran and Russia fighting against terrorism in its country.
This is a nightmare for the US who hoped to continue imposing its will on the Middle East through the blind obedience of its vassals, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and with them battling each other, the US’s role had become much more complicated to influence events.
Despite President Trump initially supporting the actions against Qatar, a few days later the State Department and the Pentagon expressed their support for Qatar, contradicting the President’s accusations that it was supporting terrorism ‘on a very high level’ earlier.
Confusion and contradictions in the US are increasingly destabilizing itself, showing a country without strategic direction or common sense for that matter. 
It is by no means surprising, as the US Department of State is still ‘occupied’ by former administration loyalists, who are heavily tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, as was Hillary Clinton and her trusted assistant Huma Abedin. 
The Pentagon is involved in its own deep-state civil war and considers Qatar primarily from a tactical perspective as the vast majority of US aircraft directed against Syria, take off from their al-Udeid air base in Qatar. 
The sale of $12 billion worth of jets to Qatar is further evidence that Qatar is one of the best customers of the military-industrial complex of the US. On the one hand, Qatar is a ‘high-level’ supporter of terrorists and on the other hand, a good customer. These contradictory messages continue to destabilize the US and its closest allies in the region.
The deployment of several Israeli tactical and operational aircraft in Saudi Arabia also didn’t go unnoticed and increasing ‘rapprochement’ between the Kingdom and Israelis is also creating even more distrust in the region.
However, reconciliation within the ‘former’ GCC seems quite impossible as Doha decided to use this opportunity to chart its own independent course.
The Qatar Airways CEO, said that thanks to Iran, there is now a chance for the operator to circumvent the skies illegally closed to it by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. He said that the company will proceed with broadening its horizons towards new routes so far unexplored in order to reduce its huge losses from the blockade.
For the moment, Doha’s ships carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to operate freely and blocking its ships would push Qatar into a corner and could escalate into a military confrontation.
Bin Salman’s inexperience and bungling may also create problems with Egypt that allows transit of Qatar’s LNG through the Suez Canal to deliver gas to Europe. A request from Riyadh to Cairo to block Qatari ships could create further fractures and tensions among the participants in the blockade of Qatar.
Trump must have realized how ‘unhelpful’ these rifts are to his Arab NATO plan with Turkey and Israel on opposite sides and Qatar and Saudi Arabia are on the verge of a war. Will Washington continue its attempts to impose its strategic vision in all of the Middle East to safeguard its interests?
As always, the Arc of Shia Resistance benefits the most, especially as Syria is advancing to the province of Deir Ezzor after almost five years of its absence there. Whereas Turkey, Iran and Russia have ceasefire agreements, signed in Astana, the majority of remaining problems lie with the terrorist groups supported by Qatar and Turkey or by Saudi Arabia. 
Turkey, after intense Russian diplomatic efforts, seems to be on the verge of abandoning its support for anti-Assad forces, but prudence dictates that it tarries awhile before proceeding with these changes. Erdogan has often played a double or triple game.
Trump seems to have climbed onto the losers’ band wagon and it is now harder than ever for him to support bin Salman who is showing little hesitation in destroying his kingdom as well as in undermining fundamental relations among Washington’s allies.
The risks of Bin Salman’s disruptive actions and Trump’s incompetence may have unimaginable consequences, as the entire Anglo-American/NATO/Middle East architecture constructed over a hundred years of wars and abuses, may simply collapse under its own weight.
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