Dreams of Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s Secessionist President Die

The September 25 vote on independence of the autonomous Kurdish region from Iraq unleashed a torrent of critical reactions both from Iraqi government and political circles and also foreign countries, and went on to end in spark of Kirkuk takeover conflict.

In mid-October clashes erupted between a coalition of advancing Iraqi forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, raising the risk of the both sides' engagement in a long-term conflict. The several-day clashes built pressures on Masoud Barzani, the KRG president and the driving force of the breakaway poll. The unprecedentedly stern rebukes were directed against Barzani as he was recognized as being behind the plot to split the country and for his failed plan that resulted in the central government’s seizure of the disputed regions, on top of them Kirkuk that was seized by Peshmerga forces in June 2014 after ousting ISIS from the city.

Major disparagement poured against the veteran leader of Kurdistan by the opposition parties in the autonomous northern region. They blamed Barzani as the main cause behind the current crisis of Kurdistan for his pressing ahead with the independence referendum, turning down any domestic and foreign offers of mediation, and also turning a blind eye to the regional and international powers' warnings about the consequences of the secessionist agenda. They cite as examples of financial loss fall of Kirkuk's rich oilfields to Baghdad as well as the airports' income shrinking after neighboring countries decision to close their airspace to the region’s flights on central Iraqi government's request.

The key critics of Barzani, who also leads the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), are Gorran (Change) Movement, Coalition for Democracy and Justice, and also the Kurdistan Islamic Movement. They in past few weeks have run a campaign of demands calling for Barzani and his senior assistant Hemin Hawrami to leave office. The three opposition parties also issued a statement on Tuesday, demanding that Barzani-led KRG be dissolved and its powers be given to the relevant institutions as the law orders. Under domestic and foreign pressures, Barzani was finally made to step doawn and the parliament of the Iraqi Kurdistan region has approved his resignation.

Political initiatives

Some proposals have been made in the meantime to address the political crisis inside the region. Most significant of them was made by the Gorran Movement, a five-item initiative that also was welcomed by the Coalition for Democracy and Justice, led by the former prime minister of the Kurdish region Barham Salih, and also the Kurdistan Islamic Movement.

Here are the five items:

- Working towards the Kurdistan region’s unity
- Forming an interim government, or salvation government, through collective work of the Kurdish political parties based on a parliamentary system
- Interacting with the central government and working towards normalization of situation
- Dissolving the president post and transferring its powers to the cabinet
-And recognizing the regional parliament as the only eligible decision-making body

Barham Salih has said that the interim government is expected to settle the troubles showed face after the referendum and, most importantly, win the trust of the Kurdistan region’s citizens. The interim government should, moreover, unite the various Kurdish factions and parties and undertake the responsibility of going to the negotiation table with Baghdad, according to Salih. This initiative signals that 32 political parties and movements of Kurdistan region have agreed to send a board of negotiators to Baghdad for dialogue with the central government’s leaders.

On the other side, the post-vote events forced the authorities in Erbil to postpone the presidential and parliamentary elections for eight months. Earlier, Masoud Haider of the Gorran Movement had proposed to the Erbil-based parliament a roadmap to solve the crisis. According to the plan, the KRG was recommended to suspend the plebiscite result, Baghdad was asked to remove its forces from the “disputed regions”, and US-led international coalition’s forces was suggested to be entrusted with security of the disputed regions. The roadmap, additionally, calls for a time frame for Baghdad and Erbil to settle bilateral problems.

But how much such initiatives can find ground for implementation with regard to the region’s political predicament is a matter of questioning. Seeking to shift the blame on others like the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Gorran by accusing them of “treason”, Barzani and his KDP are striving after staying the major party in charge of the power in the autonomous region. On the other side, the KDP leaders will hardly accede to suspension of the vote result as this will likely trigger disgruntlement from their hardline nationalist supporters. So, the political outlook of the region prefigures ongoing division in the Kurdish home. In fact, the salvation government is a natural outcome of these intra-Kurdish gaps.

Therefore, the KRG on Thursday froze, and not cancelled, the poll result, and unveiled its three-part plan: Starting negotiations with Baghdad, holding the fire, and suspending the vote result. On the opposite side, Baghdad immediately responded, calling for cancellation, not suspension, of the plebiscite outcome. The central government had other demands from Erbil, including saving the nation’s unity, respecting the constitution, and facilitating federal government’s control of the border crossings, airports, natural resources, Peshmerga forces, and the Kurdish security forces. But Iraqi government suspended its demands as preconditions to cease military campaign and ordered its forces to hold fire last week.

Barzani and power crisis

A collection of these developments brought Barzani under home and foreign strains. Beside lack of support for Barzani’s aspirations and Baghdad's tough opposition, some Kurdish factions raised their voice against the resigned president’s disregard of the consequences of separation ballot, labeled “unconstitutional” by Iraqi Supreme Court. Many of his opponents blame him for leadership weakness, arguing that his lack of alternative plans and ignoring the region’s inappropriate conditions stood firmly behind the new predicament the Kurdish people grappling with. They, moreover, find the Kirkuk and other areas defeat and seizure as a political and military catastrophe. Figures from Gorran Movement lashed out at Barzani for insecurity, war, and crisis. They are assertive in their idea that his shortsightedness and dictatorship forced Kurdistan region back to the pre-2003 conditions.

Barzani was well faced a power crisis as opponents find the referendum a miscalculation specifically associated with him. In their eyes, he declined to be realistic in assessing the political and military strength of their region, and that he exploited the breakaway vote solely to stay in power and restore his publicly lost legitimacy.

Some reports say Barzani relinquished power in favor of Nechirvan Barzani, his nephew and current prime minister of the region. For him, Necherwan Barzani in power is a backdoor through which he can guarantee influence in the future government. But the point is that the opposition parties at the parliament not only challenge the method of picking president and Masoud Barzani’s presidency of the region, but also they are at odds with the KDP over the presidential mandates' limits.

As it was expected, the political and field developments laid bare the Kurdish region’s weakness and crisis Barzani sought to cover up using provocation of the Kurdish nationalists. But the resultant fiasco drove him out of power.