Russian Ukraine Campaign: How Is West Asia Reacting?

Reactions to Russian military operation in Ukraine have so far been various. This is also true in the Arab countries. 

Hasty Lebanese stance about Ukraine conflict 
At the same time as the Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine began, the Lebanese foreign ministry issued a statement condemning Moscow's military action, which provoked reactions inside Lebanon, with some seeing the posture hasty and surprising.

Opposing the Lebanese Foreign Ministry's position, Lebanese Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram stressed that Lebanon's official position on Russia must be consistent with a long-held policy of neutrality.

Calling the statement hasty, he said it was unjustifiable and that most cabinet ministers stressed the need to commit to neutrality policy. 

Hezbollah lawmaker: foreign minister should explain 
Hezbollah's representative in parliament, Ibrahim al-Mousawi, also tweeted sharply criticizing the Lebanese foreign ministry's stance condemning Russia's Ukraine operation, adding that the foreign minister should explain. 

He stated that wherever they want, they claim neutrality and wherever they want, they interfere and condemn, wondering "what kind of foreign policy is Lebanon pursuing and where is the place of Lebanese interests in this foreign policy."

On the other hand, Hassan Fazlullah, another representative of Hezbollah in the parliament, emphasized in his speech that the statement did not reflect the position of the Lebanese nation and governance. 

Lebanese Minister of Culture Mohammed al-Murtadha, a member of Amal movement, an ally of Hezbollah, also protested the foreign ministry's stance, saying that the foreign minister had no right to take a position without referring to the cabinet. 

President Michel Aoun's advisor lashed out at the stance. Amal Abu Zayd described as "surprising" the stance and added that it seemed the foreign minister was under pressure to issue the statement. 

Abu Zayd stressed that the Foreign Ministry's position does not reflect the Lebanese consensus on the deep relationship between Beirut and Moscow, and that the head of the Free National Movement, in contact with the Russian ambassador to Lebanon, expressed his dissatisfaction with the statement.
The Lebanese presidential adviser also noted that she would soon visit Moscow to discuss Lebanon's position on Ukraine with Lebanese officials. 

Russian embassy in Beirut: Lebanon foreign ministry's stance biased
The Russian embassy in Beirut also issued a statement in reaction, stating that the position was against the policy of neutrality and meant bias in favor of one party against the other. 

Arab sheikhdoms choose silence 
If it had been several years ago, perhaps the wealthy Arab sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf would have leaned to the US stance against Russia. But the boost to their relations with Russia made them chose a middle path between the two powers. 

While Western countries have unanimously condemned Russia's campaign in Ukraine, the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council Arab monarchies have chosen to remain silent. 

According to experts, their unwillingness to pick a side in the conflict of c can be explained by the significance of energy, economy, and security. 
"Not only economic relations, but also security relations between these [Arab] countries and Moscow have been strengthened," Anne Gadel, a foreign policy researcher at Institute Montaigne told AFP. 

The UAE, along with China and India, abstained from voting on Friday at a UN Security Council meeting for an American-Albanian resolution calling on Moscow to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Russia vetoed the resolution.

Following the vote, the official UAE news agency (WAM) reported a telephone call between the Emirati and American diplomacy apparatus chiefs. 
Also, the UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan is planned to meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow. 

Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait have also chosen silence so far.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have also had strained relations with the US in recent years over human rights issues and arms deals. US intelligence services have accused Riyadh of killing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashgeji in 2018. Abu Dhabi threatened Washington in December 2021 with the cancellation of the F-35 purchase agreement, and eventually Joe Biden's government has somewhat limited its military intervention in the region. 

Andreas Krieg, a researcher at Kings College London, commented on the Arab-Russian relations, saying "Russia is seen as an ideological ally, while US human rights demands are proving problematic." 

Additionally, according to official figures, the trade between Russia and the Arab monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in 2021 reached $5 billion. 

Most of (P) GCC countries, as key players in the energy market, have production and partnership relations with Russia. Riyadh and Moscow are leading the OPEC Plus coalition and tightly controlling output to support the market.

The OPEC Plus coalition consists of 23 members, including 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its 10 partners. OPEC limited its output to support crude market as part of its agreement with allies. The Arab countries that are members of OPEC are in a difficult diplomatic situation because maintaining the OPEC Plus agreement, which controls production and supports the prices, is clearly on top of their agenda.

Ellen Wald, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Market, told the AFP that the Persian Gulf Arab states are afraid of damaging these relations and are seeking to maintain Russia's participation in OPEC Plus.

"If Russia leaves the coalition, the agreement will probably be broken," she added. 

Ukraine conflict's impacts on West Asia 
The war in Ukraine will have undeniable implications for West Asia region. The region is one of the hubs of energy supply, and due to sanctions against Russia, especially in the energy sector, we will see more pressure on the West Asian energy supply. 

At the same time, some Russian companies and banks in Arab countries like the UAE, and specifically in Dubai, have branches and offices, and it is unclear whether Emirati officials will be willing to comply with Western and US sanctions or turn a blind eye to the activities of sanctioned Russian companies and banks. With the UAE abstention from voting on the anti-Russian resolution in the Security Council, it is likely that the UAE authorities, despite Western sanctions, will not be too obsessed with the Russian companies and banks. 

On the other hand, Ukraine is wheat supplier to some Arab states like Egypt. Between 2020 and 2021, Egypt imported 12.5 million tons of wheat, 85 percent of which is from Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, the war in Ukraine and the embargo on trade with Russia will most likely impact the food and wheat supply to some Arab countries, and therefore some have predicted an increase in food prices in West Asia. 

Among the West Asian countries, Russian also addressed the Ukrainian crisis conservatively, as a considerable part of the Turkish and Egyptian tourism marks is a share of Russian tourists. This means the Turks are not inclined to lose their Russian visitors easily by complying with the Western sanctions on Moscow. In other words, Turkey and Egypt compliance with the West's anti-Russian sanctions are not easy, especially that the Egyptians in the past years acquired part of their arms needs from Russia and so Cairo have to continue its relations with Moscow for the sake of its arms despite the Western sanctions.