The Russian-Iranian Alliance

Earlier, the Russian leadership held consultations and meetings with almost all internal and external players in the ME in stating their positions towards Syria and recent developments have shown that some consensus had been reached. Yet, some positions are diverging as both Turkey and Israel expanded their support to the terrorist groups through increased military involvement in the conflict. This has forced Moscow and Tehran to adjust their short-term plans and they would also be discussing a broader political agenda.

The rationale behind their alliance in Syria (and elsewhere) is their concern over security threats from the terrorist groups and also their geopolitical competitors who are using their proxy forces and surrogate regimes in the area to increase pressure on their alliance.

These external players are seeking control over the region phases, the most important of which was the encouragement of Islamic sectarianism in conflating Sunni Islam and Wahabbism on the one hand and their propaganda that Assad somehow was a Shia, despite the fact that the vast majority of his army and MPs are Sunni.

If we want to understand the Iranian and Russian interests in the region, we should attempt a forecast, characterizing the aims and objectives that each side has for this year.

In diplomatic terms, Russia will continue trying to align its Syrian policy with that of the US. It may use their strategic cooperation with the Kurds as an opener. Russia will also continue to work with Ankara to decrease or stop their support of the terrorists in the flow of arms and munition. Importantly, there is a need to separate pro-Turkish militant groups from the al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. 

As far as the Kurds are concerned, Russia will continue in its efforts to reconcile the Syrian government and the Kurdish leadership in order to find a shared vision of a post-war political order in Syria. This could evolve into an alliance of some sorts between them. Russia will also expand its role as a mediator in other ME conflicts, such as in Iraq, Palestine, Yemen (and even Libya). 

In military terms, Russia has the following goals:
1.    The decisive defeat of Daesh;
2.    Developing its military infrastructure in Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base;
3.    Strengthening the Syrian Armed Forces; 
4.    Limiting US expansion in Syria especially in the provinces of Raqqah and Deir Ezzor; 
5.    Limiting Turkish military expansion; and
6.    Continued development of relations with the Kurds.

Conversely, Tehran will continue strengthening the Syrian government and pro-Iranian forces there as key components of the Crescent of Resistance. It will also focus on the stabilization of the government of Iraq and the Popular Mobilization Forces there for the same reason.

Iran will also seek to present itself as the main frontline power working in the interests of the Palestinians and will contribute military and diplomatic efforts to strengthening the influence of Hezbollah in gaining recognition for it as a legitimate political and military force in the region.

Economic isolation is a major obstacle for Tehran and the chances of all sanctions on Iran be lifted in the near future is quite remote. Meanwhile, Iranian-EU relations may result in an expected economic breakthrough.

Iranian military goals consist of:
1.    The decisive defeat of Daesh;
2.    Disintegrating Wahabbi terrorist groups for the survival of the Syrian government;
3.    Strengthening of the pro-government forces in Syria, even within the Syrian Armed Forces;
4.    Development of Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Syria; and
5.    Development of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ facilities in Syria;
Hence, Russia and Iran have some joint military goals and on the political and diplomatic, their agendas are almost the same but differences could appear as Iran is a regional player with its own historical agenda, while Russia is a supra-regional player with some links to the region. 

Economic and energy factors could also play a role and this is why the alliance has to collaborate with one another for swift responses to challenges as they materialize. They have to clarify their own vital interests in good faith, to exchange views, and to develop a pragmatic, joint approach in the sphere of regional security.