“Israel’s” War Is Far from Over

Within less than 24 hours, the “Israelis” assassinated seven Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members in an unprecedented strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus and also murdered seven foreign aid workers in Gaza.

The latter is a deliberate demonstration of “Israel’s” commitment to starving the indigenous population in Gaza as part of a broader effort to fundamentally alter the demographic and political reality in the Palestinian enclave. It should also be viewed through the prism of increasingly hostile communications between Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the Biden administration.

The seven aid workers were operating under the cover of the Washington-based World Central Kitchen, whose founder Jose Andres is tangled up in US politics and whom Joe Biden refers to as a personal friend. In other words, the killing of WCK staff is a not-so-subtle message to the Americans to stay out of Gaza.

After six months of war and more than 30,000 dead Palestinians, the “Israelis” also wanted to declare that Iranian soil is now fair game in Tel Aviv’s increasingly desperate pursuit to restore a security doctrine rendered obsolete by October’s Al-Aqsa Flood operation and subsequent attacks by regional resistance groups.

The killing of Iranian commanders in Damascus indeed marks the biggest blow to the Revolutionary Guards’ cross-border operations since the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani. But this cannot reverse “Israeli” failures on the frontlines.

The simple truth is that in the elaborate network of regional resistance factions, there are no indispensables. This is a dangerous line of work and Tehran is fully prepared for the inevitability of casualties on both sides. That preparedness is one of the reasons for Iran’s cautious and measured responses.   

Another is the acknowledgment that intensifying “Israeli” war crimes, which many have already condemned as sheer lunacy, could have potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire region.

Domestic maneuvers and international liabilities

The war that started in Gaza and is gradually expanding to other parts of the Middle East has proven very effective in uniting the bitterly divided “Israeli” society and political elites. And while the “Israeli” public remains torn on many issues, Netanyahu’s genocidal policy in Gaza is not one of them.

Recent polls show that more than 80% of “Israelis” believe that “military pressure” on Hamas is the best way to secure the release of “Israeli” captives, while more than 60% are opposed to Tel Aviv agreeing, even in principle, to an independent Palestinian state.

With his talent for gauging the mood of the “Israeli” electorate and in his quest for his own political survival, Netanyahu is still promising “complete victory” over Hamas.

Of course, all the talk about the destruction of Hamas’ battalions should be treated as nothing more than war propaganda and Netanyahu’s political maneuvering. The “Israeli” prime minister is perfectly aware that there is no military solution to the situation in Gaza, that Hamas’ core demands won’t change, and that the situation on the ground is headed toward a protracted insurgency.

In short, there is no deal for Netanyahu to make. Any winding down of military operations without the aura of victory will prompt his supporters to accuse him of treason and his opponents will take care of the rest. That’s why Netanyahu is focused on denying responsibility for what had happened on October 7, promising to maintain the status quo on the Palestinian issue, and working toward restoring deterrence by widening the war.

This unsettling agenda coupled with disdain for Netanyahu's far-right government and the bloodbath in Gaza is fueling both global solidarity with Palestinians and “Israel’s” international isolation.

The United States isn’t immune to this trend and the political center of gravity on the American left is shifting towards support for Palestinian liberation ahead of a crucial election, which Biden may very well lose.

Biden’s Democratic Party, which has traditionally been defined by a blend of Zionism and liberalism, also has a history of complicated and even combative relations with Netanyahu and his successive governments over the years.

The White House has tried to navigate these murky waters by adopting a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, the president is trying to sway progressives with humanitarian gestures and, more recently, calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, while maintaining unconditional military support for “Israel” in a bid to maintain the support of traditional Zionist elements.

This strategy is only exacerbating the conflict in the Middle East and what’s more, Netanyahu views it as a sign of weakness. The “Israeli” premier even appears to be engineering a showdown with the Biden administration, which he plans to blame for his failed military adventures in Gaza and beyond.

The feeling appears to be mutual in Washington, where the highest-ranking elected Jewish official, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, said Netanyahu “has lost his way” as he called for new elections in “Israel”.

However, new elections and Netanyahu’s departure are unlikely to extinguish the raging fire in the Middle East. “Israel” needs the war to prevent unresolved internal conflicts from boiling over and public opinion is charting a dangerous trajectory with no appetite for ending the bloodshed.